Forecasting The Number of Passengers Arrival on Domestic Flights at Yogyakarta International Airport in 2024-2025 Using Holt-Winter's Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to get forecasting results with the best model of the Holt-Winter's Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA forecasting methods by looking at the smallest error value, where both of them can handle time data sets. A comparison of forecasting methods was carried out to obtain a high level of model accuracy using actual data for the period of January 2021 to December 2022 to obtain forecasting results for the number of passengers for 2024-2025. Forecasting with the Holt-Winter's Exponential Smoothing method produces a MAPE value of 42.39968. The best method was obtained for predicting the number of domestic arrival passengers at Yogyakarta International Airport in 2024-2025 when viewed based on the smallest MAPE value, namely, the ARIMA method with model (4,1,0) for the January 2024 period is 279,956 passengers with the obtained MAPE value that is equal to 32.66308.